October’s box office is looking eerily quiet, but could The Black Phone 2 finally ring in a win for Blumhouse? Just like last year, when Joker: Folie à Deux failed to light up the autumn box office, this month’s theatrical releases seem to be falling flat. Despite positive buzz, star-driven films like The Smashing Machine and Roofman have underperformed, while Disney’s high-budget Tron: Ares continues to prove that this franchise appeals to a niche audience at best. It’s no surprise that Netflix is re-releasing K-pop Demon Hunters this Halloween weekend—theater owners are desperate for a guaranteed hit. But here’s where it gets controversial: Blumhouse is betting big on horror season with the release of The Black Phone 2, hoping audiences are ready for another scare. The original film was a sleeper hit, raking in over $23 million its opening weekend and eventually grossing $90 million domestically on a mere $16 million budget. It was a textbook example of Blumhouse’s low-budget, high-concept strategy paying off—but can lightning strike twice? And this is the part most people miss: Blumhouse has been on a losing streak lately, with costly flops like Wolf Man, Woman in the Yard, Drop, and the pricey M3GAN 2.0 failing to connect with audiences. The Black Phone 2 is projected to open at $20 million, a solid but unspectacular result. However, it’s unlikely to match the staying power of its predecessor, as fans are scratching their heads over Ethan Hawke’s return as The Grabber—a character who died in the original. Plus, Hawke’s limited screen time might disappoint viewers, though rising star Mason Thames (fresh off the success of the How to Train Your Dragon reboot) could draw in younger audiences. Ironically, Thames has another film, Regretting You, opening next weekend—talk about a busy schedule! Meanwhile, Tron: Ares is expected to land in second place with $15 million, though a steep 50-60% drop in its second week spells trouble for the franchise. Aziz Ansari’s Good Fortune, starring Keanu Reeves as an angel, might scrape together $10 million, but mixed reviews and a lackluster comedy market could cap its potential. Amazon/MGM’s awards hopeful After the Hunt is predicted to open in fourth place with $6 million, though it may end up as a streaming favorite. Rounding out the top five is Roofman with $5 million. Here’s the full breakdown of our predictions:
- The Black Phone 2: $20 million
- Tron: Ares: $15 million
- Good Fortune: $10 million
- After the Hunt: $6 million
- Roofman: $5 million
Controversial question: Is Blumhouse’s formula still relevant, or are audiences growing tired of their low-budget horror model? Let us know what you’re watching this weekend—and whether you think The Black Phone 2 will break the curse—in the comments below!
